← Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Water NeosTier 3
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.6%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1129
· median 1129
· range 1129–1129
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1128
Q3 1315
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 13.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
